It can’t have escaped anyone’s notice that 2024 is the year of elections – from the US presidential and congressional votes, through to India, the EU and possibly/probably the UK general elections, it seems like the whole world will be casting its vote at some point. In fact, according to Time magazine, 64 countries plus the EU, representing nearly half of the global population, will be going to the polls.
All this political activity inevitably leads to uncertainty and instability, which, of course, creates financial risk. Alongside the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, plus looming supply chain threats as the Red Sea shipping route closes down (hopefully only temporarily), you can see that treasurers face a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty.
As one commentator in our main feature says: “It is likely that the geopolitical risk will continue to be the main driver impacting the global economy, financial markets and commodity prices.” The message is clear – treasurers need to expect the unexpected (again).
But help is at hand, thanks to our friend artificial intelligence (AI). After the launch of generative AI solution ChatGPT late in 2022, the coming 12 months will see many treasurers getting to grips with AI as a tool in their risk management, providing data, forecasting, and helping prepare for Black Swan events.
The downside, of course, is that this same technology could be used increasingly by ‘bad actors’, either in the political arena or the financial markets, to devastating effect. For instance, treasurers are being warned to be on their guard for suspicious payment requests that come from an apparently trusted source. In fact, many believe that 2024 will not only be the year of the election, but could also prove to be the year of the deepfake.
We also explore how treasurers can build teams that are resilient and capable of thriving during these uncertain times, while a former editor of the magazine, Sally Percy, tells us what she learned from analysing how good leaders build great teams. In addition, we hear from Mark Hirst, the group treasurer of iconic footwear brand Dr. Martens, about his own experience of building a treasury team.
Finally, I was particularly delighted that the Lord Mayor of London, Michael Mainelli, took time out from his hectic schedule to tell us why he believes the City of London remains the pre-eminent financial centre for fundraising. He points to the many diverse skills that can be found within one square mile of the capital and how important it is to remember that the City is still the coffee shop of the world.
Such insights will, I’m sure, help treasurers weather the oncoming storms.
Philip Smith
Editor
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